Recent US jobs data falls out of sync with previous indicators which pointed to economic weakness. Non-farm payrolls advanced 272,000 in May trumping estimates, wages also climbed 4.1% from a year ago, whilst unemployment unexpectedly rose to 4%. These readings portend to a bleaker view for the US, in which inflationary pressures persist whilst unemployment ticks up, bringing on the risk of stagflation. The upside surprise in jobs growth and wages also pushes the Fed further from comfort in order to begin easing policy, which is in contrast to Europe and Canada who begun cutting rates this week. On a positive, whilst cost push pressures persists, the US economy appears far from recession territory. Following today’s prints, treasuries tumbled, with yields pushing higher, and the S&P 500 edging lower. Fed swaps are now no longer pricing in a rate cut before December.
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UK inflations cools… but less than expected
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France goes to the polls in a snap election.
France goes to the polls in a snap election.